Daily Murders in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics

The average count of daily murders each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh official data. However, public safety analysts have advised that murder figures may not signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen during these past months is remarkably important,” the President said, adding that the previous month the least amount of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key elements of the President's security plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, security analysts warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is especially true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it might hide days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s very debatable,” the analyst said.