Everyday Killings in the nation Decline Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The mean figure of everyday murders each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new administrative data. However, public safety experts have warned that murder numbers could fail to signal improved national safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in the previous September. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen in these past months is extremely significant,” the President stated, noting that last month the smallest amount of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than the US. However, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an apparently steeper decline in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main pillars of the President's safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts urged caution that using murder data to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is especially true in light of the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it may hide days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the nation to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.