Will Scotland at last end their long-standing losing streak?

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.